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The authors pay special attention to evaluating the prospect for the Palestinian issue and problems re-
lated to its settlement. This issue should not be allowed to recede to the background.
The situation in the MENA region is of strategic importance to Russia with regard to ensuring its na-
tional security, advancing its foreign policy interests and developing economic cooperation with coun-
tries in this region.
LET US MOVE to the IIS's second analytical report "The Future through the Eyes of U.S. Intelligence:
An Analytical Review of the Report by the National Intelligence Council 'Global Trends: The Paradox
of Progress'."
The methodology of long-term strategic forecasting is very much in demand among leading political
analysts in the West. This method has gained ground especially in the United States, where in the past
decade various research centers have published some noteworthy papers on current global problems.
Alvin Toffler, an outstanding American philosopher, sociologist and ideologist of predictive analytics,
emphasized the practical significance of such research, believing that futurist research institutions should
become part of the governmental structure of "technological societies." It should be noted that this
approach is widely and successfully applied in modern American society.
The analytical review of this extensive (226 pages) and informative document, done at a highly profes-
sional level by N.P. Gribin, director of the IIS Center for Northern European and Baltic Studies, is of
unquestionable interest in terms of the critical evaluation of the U.S. establishment's approaches toward
the main global problems, especially in the context of new foreign policy guidelines that are being for-
mulated by the team of the 45th U.S. president.
In his review, N. P. Gribin notes that in many parts of the report its authors refer to it as a "version"
and this definition is quite justified because, unlike previous documents of this kind, Global Trends is
more tentative, low-key and hypothetical. Essentially, the leitmotif of the entire text of the National
Intelligence Council's report is thinking about the future.
For the first time in such studies, NIC analysts sought to make a brief analysis of global development
processes in the context of the paradox of this development. This paradox is as follows. The achieve-
ments of the industrial and information ages are shaping the world to come that is both more dangerous
and richer with opportunity than ever before.
N.P. Gribin notes that, according to NIC analysts, the threat from terrorism will expand in the coming
decades as the small groups and individuals affiliated with it will use new technologies, ideas, and rela-
tionships to their advantage.
The reviewer believes that the prediction made in the report to the effect that the threat posed by
nuclear and other forms of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) will probably increase is well-sub-
stantiated. Specific nuclear weapon states will almost certainly continue to maintain, if not modernize,
their nuclear forces out to 2035. Nuclear sabre-rattling by North Korea and uncertainty over Iran's in-
tentions could drive others to pursue nuclear capabilities.
N.P. Gribin shares the NIC experts' concern about the fact that a changing climate, increasing stress
on environmental and natural resources, and deepening connection between human and animal health
reflect complex systemic risks that will outpace existing approaches.
The reviewer draws a number of well-substantiated conclusions. In particular, N.P. Gribin notes that
the NIC experts failed to - or most likely did not set themselves the task of preserving objectivity and
impartiality in exploring a number of problems that are relevant today, as well as in the short term and
the long term, especially those that include a political dimension. And this despite the fact that, as Na-
tional Intelligence Council Chairman Gregory Treverton noted in his letter, as always, the NIC has used
the experience of numerous independent experts in various fields.