Стр. 28 - V

Электронное приложение к журналу «Международная жизнь»
Author : I. Popov
Associate Professor, Department of Diplomacy, Moscow State Institute (University) of International Relations,
Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation, Candidate of Science (History)
WE ARE PLEASED to present to the readers of International Affairs
the reviews of two analytical reports by the Institute of International
Studies (IIS) of the Russian Foreign Ministry's Moscow State Institute
(University) of International Relations (MGIMO). The authors of the
first report, "A Mid-Term Forecast for the Development of the Situation
in the Middle East and North Africa," are A.V. Fedorchenko, director of
the IIS Center for Middle East Studies, and A.V. Krylov, its leading re-
search associate. The second report, "The Future Through the Eyes of
U.S. Intelligence: An Analytical Review of the National Intelligence Coun-
cil Report 'Global Trends: The Paradox of Progress'," is written by N.P.
Gribin, director of the IIS Center for Northern European and Baltic
Studies.
THE AUTHORS of the report "A Mid-Term Forecast for the Development of the Situation in the
Middle East and North Africa" note that, during the decades of the productive, substantive and mul-
tidimensional dialogue with the majority of countries in the Middle and Near East, Russia has estab-
lished with them warm, friendly and mutually respectful relations and with some countries, even
trust-based relations. Importantly, this applies to countries that not only have no sympathy for each
other but are historically divided by deep disagreements and even hatred. Under these circumstances,
Moscow was a desirable interlocutor for many countries in the Middle East, capable of making an ob-
jective assessment and proposing a constructive solution to the most complicated problems.
Nevertheless, Russia's special role in the Middle East is not to everybody's liking, and there are influential
forces - both regional and extraregional - that are interested in significantly weakening Moscow's mili-
tary-political and economic positions in this extremely complex and volatile part of the world that is
rich in natural resources.
Even before the "Arab Spring," the Middle East was a zone of various conflicts while the people living
in the region experienced firsthand the consequences of acute socioeconomic, political, environmental
and other problems.
To prevent the negative impact of instability in the Middle East on other parts of the world, it is expe-
dient to revisit the "three baskets" format (security, economy and humanitarian cooperation), which
served as a foundation of the Helsinki process in Europe. This format, adapted to MENA specifics,
could serve as a basis for a new collective security system in the region.
The authors have identified the most likely areas of new wars and conflicts. It seems that in the fore-
seeable future, Syria and Iraq will remain areas with high potential for conflict, generating new wars
and regional security challenges. The Kurdish issue, which has escalated recently, can lead to a new hy-
brid war in the region, the division of Iraq and Syria, which is predicted by many experts, and the sub-
sequent revision of the existing borders of both states.
The Situation in the Middle East and the U.S. Perspective on
Global Trends