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Vitaly Bushuyev
, Director General of the Energy Strategy
Institute: If we want to understand the situation in Ukraine
today, it cannot be viewed only through the prism of gas, en-
ergy and even economic ties as a whole. The problem lies far
deeper, because a line passes across the Dnieper River that
separates two civilizations - Western, including Western
Slavic civilization, and Left Bank Ukraine, which is still part
of Eurasian civilization, which has had a different mentality,
and I hope that it will continue for a long time to come. What
we are seeing today is in fact a clash of civilizations. A way out naturally involves either concessions
to Western civilization, which in that event will occupy Ukraine's entire territory, to be followed by
Belarus, and then central Russia, or this civilizational line will be protected by all possible economic
and mainly geopolitical methods.
Alexei Mastepanov
, Deputy Director of the Oil and Gas
Institute: On the issue of the diversification of natural gas
export supplies and Russia's eastern energy policy. After a gas
contract with China was signed, many media outlets assessed
that step as all but forced upon Russia amid the mounting
political and economic sanctions against it. In reality, how-
ever, that is far from being the case. Diversification of gas
supplies and eastern energy policy of Russia in general, and
of Gazprom in particular, have a long history and deep roots.
So these events have nothing to do with the sanctions. This is simply a coincidence in time.
As a participant in negotiations with China on gas contracts, I personally felt the consequences of
such an approach for a long time. The possibilities of Russian gas supplies were studied not only in
Russian official structures; in 1993-1995, the Japanese Ministry of International Trade and Industry
was tapped for the purpose, while institutes affiliated with the Russian Academy of Sciences and
one Japanese research institute drew up a special master plan for the development of energy resources
in eastern Russia, factoring in the possibility of the export of Russian energy to Asia-Pacific countries.
Already at that time it was being said that one of the main tasks was to ensure access for Russian en-
ergy resources to new foreign markets.
Svetlana Melnikova
, research associate at the Institute of
Energy Studies, Russian Academy of Sciences: Generally
speaking, in the next few years the European gas market will
be rather strained: After all, in the past two years, Europe
has lost a half of LNG supplies; all available volumes that
could have flowed to Asia have in fact flowed there. Norway
has hit a production ceiling; it cannot produce any more.
What is happening in North Africa is obvious to all: It is
not a source of additional supplies. The only realistic route
over the next several years, capable of ensuring the required flexibility of supplies is Russia.