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Электронное приложение к журналу «
Международная жизнь
»
Gennady Shmal
, President of the Union of Russian Oil
and Gas Producers: There is a view that the Ukrainian crisis
is not a direct challenge, but certain facts suggest otherwise.
The problem involves not only supplies of gas, coal and
other energy resources; it is about economic development
as a whole. Today, as in the past, the Ukrainian economy is
to a very large extent dependent on Russian gas supplies,
above all for its power generation.
Ukraine has always had a very well developed metallurgical
industry; half of all the pipes manufactured in the USSR were made in Ukraine. During this time,
the situation has changed; Russia has built its own plants (in Vyksa, Volga, and a number of others).
The Ukrainian economy is now in a comatose state. The situation is fraught with further exacerbation
if they do not receive Russian gas in the required amounts. The question will arise: What is to be
done with the metallurgical industry? It will hardly be possible to return to 30-year old metal pro-
duction technology, since that would require massive capital investment, which would be a setback.
On the other hand, it is important to take our own interests into account, and they consist in that
we cannot afford to lose such a vast market as Ukraine. They will probably not take 50 billion cubic
meters but we could definitely supply them 25-30 billion cubic meters of gas a year; and then there
is also transit.
I believe that at the end of the day, there are quite a few sensible people among those who have
come to power. So they should understand that if the economy is ruined, there will be no Ukraine
as a country. Besides, the interests of many oligarchs are mainly connected precisely to industry. At
the same time, these people have been financing the Maidan protests to a very large degree. Today,
they need to realize that if the Ukrainian economy collapses, little if anything will remain of their
prosperity. That can turn Ukraine into an endless Maidan.
Rustam Tankaev
, adviser to the Chairman of the Council
of the Union of Russian Oil and Gas Producers: There are
several telling examples that the government that came to
power in the beginning of this year is not interested in pre-
serving and developing Ukraine's industry.
With our resources mainly directed toward the West, we may
end up in a trap, not because of lack of demand but because
all sorts of obstacles will be created to prevent the penetra-
tion of our resources to the Western market.
Almost no work has been conducted to maintain the drill holes in a normal condition. During the
past 20 years, underground service maintenance was performed only once, given that the regular
service interval is two and a half years. In other words, the borehole is in a terrible condition.