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Authors: Alexander Frolov, leading research fellow, Institute of World Economy and International Re-
lations, Russian Academy of Sciences, Doctor of Science (Political Sciences);
Ravil Mustafin, military observer, worked in Tunisia, Libya, Egypt and Israel (with UN forces), Syria,
Iraq and Yemen; repeatedly visited Saudi Arabia and the Gulf countries
A. Frolov: The Ukrainian crisis eclipsed the Middle East and the
Arab revolutions which, however, have not disappeared without
trace.
Today, there are two opinions about them. Americans and their
allies are firmly convinced that Arabs or, to be more exact, sev-
eral chosen Arab states need assistance to set up democratic in-
stitutions, viz. a multiparty system and division of powers. Russia
sides with the opinion that the freedom of choice is the best op-
tion for these countries and peoples. This is, on the whole, an
ideologically unbiased approach, while the United States pro-
ceeds from ideological considerations.
R. Mustafin: More than that, Russia's position on the Arab
Spring is moral, which explains why Arabs turn to Russia for
protection and fairness. We objected to invasion of Syria not because we were on the side of the Assad regime - we
merely wanted to prevent indiscriminate slaughter of Muslims and Christians and the country's disintegration as it had
happened in Iraq and was going on in Libya.
There are no "innocent lambs" among leaders in the Arab East. Some of them are luckier, fairer, smarter and gentler
than others and do more for their countries and people.
The Arab Spring brought this out: some leaders fled with millions of dollars to live quietly in safety; some other died;
still others, frightened and stirred into action, resorted to concessions to keep power. Left to their own devices, common
people found themselves, on the whole, in a much worse situation.
R. Mustafin: When people start talking about managed chaos and triumph of "democratic changes" in Libya, Iraq and
Afghanistan I ask myself whether Americans understand the mentality of these people. Do they know geography well
enough? Will they offer same-sex marriages to the Middle East? Will they replace the high titles of "father" and "mother"
with impersonal "parents" or will they invite them to change sexual orientation? How will the Middle East respond? Its
people will never close ranks under these banners.
A. Frolov: I should say that it is not always correct to explain everything what is going on in the region by social and
economic conditions. In Libya, for example, economy was in good shape. I can say that safes of Libyan military were
full of foreign currency.
R. Mustafin: I can say that Qaddafi who had ruled his country for forty years met his death as a man convinced of his
righteous cause. Without him the country split at seams; separatist sentiments Colonel Qaddafi had been keeping under
control came to the fore.
A. Frolov: Today, the situation in Syria, where the process is going on, is much more important. The country joined the
revolutionary process later than other Arab countries because of certain restraining factors: political and ethnoconfes-
sional balance of power (which somebody could have described as not strictly fair) helped maintain order even though
the country had its share of critically minded intellectuals.
R. Mustafin: Today, we can start talking about a hot war, not about the mounting Shia-Sunni contradictions. The frontline
runs not only inside individual countries in which the Shia, Sunni and other confessions are living side by side. There are
contradictions between states with Sunni or Shia in power. In the Arab East and in the Muslim world in general, the
Sunni regimes, assisted by external forces, are trying to knock together an anti-Shia bloc of sorts.
A. Frolov: So, what can we say by way of conclusion?
Stability rests on the balance of power between tribes, clans and ethno-confessional groups; once tipped it cannot be
restored any time soon. This happened in Lebanon in 1975; similar things are going on in other countries. None of the
Arab countries will avoid changes but they prefer slow and gradual transformations.
The Middle East: Traditions and Transformations