Упрощенная HTML-версия
Author : M. Konarovsky
Leading research associate, Center for East Asian and SCO Studies, Moscow State Institute University)
of International Relations, Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation, Ambassador Ex-
traordinary and Plenipotentiary of the Russian Federation to the Islamic State of Afghanistan (2002-
2004), Candidate of Science (History)
THE TIME that has passed since most of the Western military
contingent was withdrawn from Afghanistan has not led to the ma-
terialization of the weak hope for the government's ability to meet
the formidable challenges involved in stabilizing the situation and
peace-building in the country, including on the basis of dialogue
with the armed opposition. Extreme instability will most likely pre-
determine the internal situation in Afghanistan also in the foresee-
able future.
The candidacy of a new leader, Mullah Mansur, was not to every-
one's liking, including, at any rate, at the initial stage, the closest
relatives of the former Taliban leader. It cannot be ruled out that
to consolidate his power, the new leader immediately adopted a
tough position with regard to the Kabul authorities. However, after a show of force, Mullah
Mansur purportedly started demonstrating a certain propensity for contacts with the Afghan
government.
Mullah Mansur's death in early December 2015 (which, however, is contested by certain sources)
as a result of an internal conflict graphically confirmed the continuing deep crisis within the Tal-
iban movement and the lack of a common consolidating platform with Kabul's armed oppo-
nents.
The long-running crisis in Afghanistan, which has its own internal dynamics, in the past few
years, has also been increasingly proceeding alongside the rapid development of events in the
Middle East, above all, the phenomenon of the so-called Islamic State (ISIS).
The appearance of a new extremist force, specifically ISIS, in Afghanistan has created new cir-
cumstances and uncertainties regarding the prospects for the national reconciliation process in
Afghanistan.
The paradox is that if by the beginning of the century, Afghanistan was one of the main hotbeds
of international terrorism in the post-Soviet period, today, ISIS activists have an increasing impact
on the development of the situation in a number of regions in the country.
The post-Soviet Central Asian states, above all Tajikistan, as well as Uzbekistan, are increasingly
concerned over a possible terrorist threat from Afghanistan.
Amid the present-day deterioration of Russia's relations with the West the latter can be interested
in getting Russia involved in another conflict in the expectation that it will get bogged down in
new problems that will inevitably follow this move.
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Prospects for National Reconciliation in Afghanistan