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phenomena as "Catholic Socialism" in Latin America, "Islamic Conservatism" in the
Middle East, etc.
The mechanisms and principles of global governance will continue to develop. Before
2030, this process will not lead to the emergence of designated institutes of super-na-
tional economic and politic monitoring and regulation.
THE EFFECTS of the world financial and economic crisis will continue to be felt during
the first half of the forecast period.
THE GLOBALIZATION of the world economy in the upcoming 20 years may increase
the annual growth of the global GDP by an additional 25%.
Considerable changes will take place in the service sector with a growing share of services
in the domains of public health, education, information exchange, telecommunications,
travel, etc. The main change by the year 2030 will be China's entry into the group of
countries with a medium level of development and with high socioeconomic growth.
The very classification of developed and developing countries will change.
The G7 will not become the G20: such a large multilateral mechanism would have a very
difficult time making decisions on a consensual basis, yet nothing less would be accept-
able to the less developed participants of the "group of twenty."
THE AUTHORS of the present forecast believe that the conjecture of climatic change
due to human activity has not been sufficiently proven so far, because the period of cli-
matic observation is too small.
The changing balance of forces in the community of transnational corporations creates
new opportunities for the development of international economy and politics.
Integration at the corporate level will make it possible to
- Increase the efficiency of the use of capital by the world's leading countries
- Augment the interdependence of the main international players
- Strengthen the foundations of a compromise approach to the solution of global secu-
rity problems
At the same time, qualitative changes in the role of transnational corporations will create
new challenges for the relations between transnational corporations and between cor-
porations and national governments.
The contradiction will grow between the interests of corporate business and the interests
of countries and the world as a whole.
Электронное приложение к журналу «
Международная жизнь
»