Упрощенная HTML-версия
Report prepared by a team of experts from the Institute of World Economy and International Relations
of the Russian Academy of Sciences under the editorship of Academician A.A. Dynkin
THE EXTREMELY COMPLICATED
TASK of long-term forecasting calls for the
systemic analysis of global trends to make
concrete assessments and recommendations.
It would be expedient to use such forecasting
to elaborate a strategy for developing and
consolidating the national security of Russia
to raise the quality of life of its citizens by
strengthening its international positions and
impact on world processes.
Specialists at the Institute of World Economy and International Relations (IMEMO)
have gained extensive experience and developed methodologies in forecasting, allowing
them to make qualitative descriptions of strategically important long-term trends. In so
doing, they also take international forecasting practices into account.
Today, the most important trend is comprehensive long-term forecasting. It is particularly
popular at the UN and other international organizations and in the USA, EU, and China.
STRATEGIC GLOBAL forecasting studies are still quite rare today. Such studies include
a series of reports called Global Trends including forecasts to the years 2010 and 2015
that are published by the U.S. National Intelligence Council and Atlantic Council.
The analysis of international development in the coming twenty years is particularly im-
portant for Russia in the context of its modernization agenda.
In 2010, the forecast Global Governance 2025 was prepared in this series. It offers de-
velopment scenarios for international institutes and governance and regulatory structures
as well as the interaction of leading powers in the domains of security, energy, social
processes, etc.
Russia faces the task of adequately adapting to global processes taking place in politics,
military affairs, economics, and the social sphere on the basis of a rational strategy of
their use.
It is impossible to conduct successful national reforms that run counter to global trends.
The present strategic assessment of international development to the year 2030 continues
the tradition of long-term forecasting by the Institute of World Economy and Interna-
tional Relations.
The forecast is probabilistic in nature and does not claim to predict the future.
Identifying and taking into account mutual ties between different processes in the eco-
Электронное приложение к журналу «
Международная жизнь
»
Strategic Global Forecast to the Year 2030