Стр. 28 - V

Author : Yu. Shafranik
Chairman of the Union of Oil and Gas Producers of Russia
This interview was conducted by Elizaveta Antonova, International Affairs' head
of department, and commentator Sergey Filatov.
Reducing oil production to ensure higher prices is an objective that
is publicly declared at events such as OPEC summits and other
meetings. However, what did almost all OPEC countries and the
world's major oil companies, including Russian companies, do in
2014 and 2015? They increased production! Let us take 2016. What
did they do again? They increased it again!
Why? Because everybody's main goal is to ensure market control.
Maybe no one talks about it openly but everyone pursues it. Mean-
while, competition has intensified to the highest degree possible.
Of course, everyone wants high oil prices but they are vying to increase (at least to preserve) their
share of the market.
It is also important to understand that over the past six to eight years the energy world has changed
- not drastically, but quite considerably. Yes, oil is a staple energy commodity. Nevertheless, renewable
energy sources, among other things, are already making themselves felt. Thus, Japan plans to begin
industrial production of methane from gas hydrate.
I believe that it is too early to talk about Iran's "dangerous return." This subject may become relevant
in two years or so. Today, it is more important that Saudi Arabia and other Middle East and OPEC
countries have become aware of the changes that have occurred.
The U.S. has focused on an array of measures in the energy sector - from renewable sources to new
energy generation projects, including nuclear fusion. As a result, a major technological breakthrough
was made.
There was a two-year downward trend - in fact, a plummeting trend: from over $100 per barrel to
almost $30. This is due to an array of factors, including the unstable situation in the global economy.
Many countries are experiencing a downturn. The United States is seeing economic growth. The
situation in India and China is apparently stabilizing, but there are also plenty of difficulties there.
Against this backdrop, the global financial system has begun to play an increasingly visible role.
I believe that in the long run - between 2010 and 2020 - the average price could be put at $80, not
higher. This year, it is $40-$50.
Our president has repeatedly stressed that Russia's oil and gas complex should be stable because it
remains the backbone of our economy. It is impossible to change an economic system overnight,
not even within a decade. Nevertheless, normalization processes are well in evidence. In this context,
the main task for the oil sector is to cut costs and enhance efficiency plus to ensure comprehensive
development of services and maintenance of investment programs.
No matter what, production must not be reduced.
Электронное приложение к журналу «Международная жизнь»
Fighting for Our Share in the Oil Market