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Author : S. Karaganov
Dean, School of World Economy and International Affairs, National Research University-Higher School
of Economics; Honorary Head, Presidium of the Council for Foreign and Defense Policy; Member, Panel
of Eminent Persons on European Security as a Common Project, OSCE
THE CRISIS between Russia and the West is associ-
ated with Crimea and Russia's actions in Donbass and
Ukraine; in fact, it has deeper roots while its long-term
repercussions might prove to be much graver than ex-
pected. A large-scale armed clash cannot be excluded
even if this possibility is gradually reducing; we should
be ready to political confrontation and contracted
economic ties. Today, Europe is facing an even greater
threat: a civilizational divorce with Russia.
The Russians have every reason to resent the West
that responded to the Soviet Union's self-disintegration with a neo-Versailles policy. It tried to
push Russia away from the political and economic markets; to establish its political and military
control over the territories indispensable for Russia's security and preserved at a high price of
millions of lost lives. A (so far) limited war that has come to Ukraine is a predictable and natural
response to the West. In short, the West could have helped but preferred not to help.
As far as I know, Russia was the only one among the former socialist countries that was obligated
to pay its debts accumulated in socialist times in full; all others had their debts slashed.
The present crisis between Russia and the West/Europe stems, among other things, from the
deep-laying processes unfolding in the Old World.
In the last seven or eight years, we were watching how the EU, a seemingly magnificent and vic-
torious structure, the most comfortable and humane place in the world and an example of post-
historical international arrangement, was tumbling down. This Europe is still a promised land
for the poor and ill-adjusted countries and nations. Look at Ukraine or, at least, part of its pop-
ulation. Europe, torn apart by numerous crises, will be gradually losing its attraction for Russia
as well to finally become a problem, rather than a solution.
We should and can start looking for a new détente because the sides have already got much of
what they wanted to get. Russia wanted to teach her partners to respect its interests by force,
since persuasion and appeasement had failed. Europe likes this even less than before yet, I hope,
will respect it. The West wanted to prove that it is not a "paper tiger" and that it can deliver
heavy blows. It has succeeded. The plummeting oil prices helped as well.
The idea that the problem of European security could be solved within the Eurasian context
formulated several months ago and rejected outright with a lot of hostility is now discussed
more and more frequently if not becoming popular. This helps me remain an optimist.
Relations Between Russia and Europe: No Simple Solutions in
Sight