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Электронное приложение к журналу «Международная жизнь»
Author : V. Epaneshnikov
Senior Counselor for Commercial Affairs, Permanent Mission of the Russian Federation to the European
Union
OVER THE PAST FEW YEARS, a fairly stable growth
trend in trade between Russia and the European Union
has come to an end. Since 2013, the volume of trade be-
tween Russia and the EU has undergone an unprece-
dented decline, although there has been some growth in
2017. For several reasons, the EU has not been very con-
cerned about this decrease.
POLITICS is naturally one of the reasons why the EU
is unfazed by its shrinking trade with Russia.
Another reason for the EU's attitude is the fact that the decrease in its trade with Russia is mainly
the result of falling oil and natural gas prices rather than the outcome of any physical dynamics of
this trade. The lower oil and gas prices have made imports cheaper for the EU. Finally, fears that
Russia would cut its energy exports to the EU haven't come true. Russia has proven itself to be a
reliable partner and hasn't let politics interfere with its trade commitments.
Today, nevertheless, trade between Russia and the EU still amounts to about 200 billion euros per
year and topped an annual mark of 300 billion euros in the recent past. One can hardly ignore such
amounts forever. Russia and the EU are bound to resume trade negotiations.
The policy of sanctions prevents the EU from seeing opportunities offered by Eurasian integration.
The European Commission still hasn't formulated a position on contacts with the Eurasian Eco-
nomic Union (EAEU) and takes a wait-and-see attitude.
TODAY, neither the EU nor Russia has much interest in new mutual large-scale trade negotiations.
Besides the political factor, neither side feels any serious practical need for a new trade deal. With
commercial contacts between Russia and the EU being loosened, the PCA and Russia's membership
in the WTO provide a sufficient formal basis for their trade and economic relations.
At the same time, there are reasons to expect Russia-EU trade to stop declining. If it resumes grow-
ing, sentiments may change, and the existence of the EAEU is a factor that would be impossible to
ignore in any talks.
Russia-EU economic relations are, besides, under various external influences. The WTO's prestige
is being undermined. There is a threat of new American protectionism. Britain's future departure
from the EU is fraught with controversies that are bound to poison the atmosphere in international
trade and in the WTO.
All this means that Russia and its EAEU partners should pursue more flexible and proactive trade
policies in order to be able to promptly react to new developments and not to miss opportunities
for better relations with the EU.
Key Characteristics of the International Trading System and
Prospects for Trade Between Russia and the European Union