Стр. 4 - V

Author : Yu. Shafranik
Chairman, Soyuzneftegaz, President, World Politics and Resources Foundation
I believe that, against the backdrop of various other
agencies, the U.S. Department of Energy makes
credible and well-balanced forecasts. Short-term
forecasts should not be used in analyzing the situa-
tion.
At present, the extraction of primary resources is
well-developed but consumption has declined for
various reasons. As a result, prices have fallen. In my
opinion, during the decade, the maximum price will
be $55. This is what is in store for us. At the same time, naturally, all global factors - politics, the
economy and regional problems - will affect oil production levels and oil prices.
I have always believed that Russia should not join OPEC but as for cooperation - enriching each
other with analysis and discussion, and that our cooperation should be regular.
China has replaced the U.S. as the largest consumer of available oil. The world has realized that
there are more recoverable oil and gas resources than was previously assumed. Our oil producers
have always said that there is oil but the question is how to extract it.
Of course, the role of OPEC has declined due to the changes that have occurred. OPEC will
be unable to do anything without Russia. Over the past 10 to 15 years, the energy world has
changed. I would like to draw attention to one important development that has not yet been ap-
preciated by the Middle East, in particular Saudi Arabia. The U.S. and Saudi Arabia have turned
from allies, who used to complement each other, into competitors. This also applies to us. Before
2010, energy cooperation between the United States, Saudi Arabia and Russia was the No. 1 item
at any talks - from presidential meetings to working commissions. Today, energy has turned into
a field of fierce competition. Not everyone understands this yet.
The need for oil has disappeared. U.S. priorities have changed. The ongoing processes are prag-
matic and rough going. Both OPEC and we had to take efforts to stabilize the situation and es-
tablish a more favorable price for both producers and consumers.
A balance of energy and geography is very important. Renewable energy has taken a good step,
especially in Europe. Now it is clear that costs per unit of wind power are not reducing as radically
as in our case, in the oil sector. Shale gas in the U.S. has become less costly. Any form of energy
should exist but in a state of competition. Nothing should be done artificially.
Электронное приложение к журналу «Международная жизнь»
Energy as a Field of Fierce Competition