Стр. 14 - V

Электронное приложение к журналу «Международная жизнь»
Author : G. Ivashentsov
Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of the Russian Federation to the Republic of South
Korea from 2005 to 2009
THE YEAR 2017 has brought an aggravation of the North Korean
nuclear problem. Donald Trump's assumption of office as U.S.
president coincided in time with a new stage of the North Korean
nuclear missile program.
In his 2017 New Year's address, Kim announced that North Korea
was soon going to test an ICBM that could reach the mainland
United States. This suggests that serious progress might be made
within the next few years, and that in the foreseeable future North
Korea might become one of the United States' main potential ad-
versaries along after Russia and China, possessing weapons that
would be able to wipe out Los Angeles, San Francisco and Seattle,
and possibly Washington and New York as well. Of course, Britain
and France would be able to do the same, but they are allies of the United States.
The governments of Japan and South Korea have for decades exploited the "North Korean ag-
gression" theme to obtain military aid from the United States. However, today, in the face of a
concrete threat of an armed conflict with a nuclear state, Tokyo and Seoul have adopted less
militant rhetoric.
TRUMP'S PRAGMATIC POLICIES have brought it home to the South Koreans repeatedly
and in unexpected ways that their interests are not too high on the Americans agenda. Seoul has
rejected the U.S. president's demand that South Korea pay all the expenses for the upkeep of
the American forces stationed on its territory.
Chinese tourism in South Korea has declined considerably - tourism has been a major source of
income for small and midsize businesses in South Korea's large cities and popular tourist desti-
nations. Some of the flights between the two countries have been canceled, and Chinese cruise
ships bypass Pusan. China has put restrictions on imports from South Korea, whereas many
South Korean companies have been exporting between 30% and 80% of their output to China.
As a result, South Korea is likely to be in for mass bankruptcies and layoffs, and for an economic
recession. This makes ordinary South Koreans wonder whether they need THAAD if it comes
at such cost.
RUSSIA'S POSITION on the North Korea issue practically coincides with China's. Both base
their policies on three principles. Firstly, both Russia and China strictly condemn North Korea's
nuclear missile program. The latter poses a direct threat both to Russia and to China as North
Korea tests its nuclear devices and missiles near our borders, at distances of between 150 and
200 kilometers from them.
The Trump administration is seeking to win Russia and China over to its side. It is cobbling to-
The Korean Crisis: Is There a Solution?