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Электронное приложение к журналу «
Международная жизнь
»
Author : M. Margelov
Chairman, International Affairs Committee, RF Federation Council
We probably need to start off from the world financial and
economic crisis, which began, as we remember, with the
tumbling of the real estate market in the U.S. in 2008. When
the U.S. property investment pyramid collapsed, few people
could have imagined that this could lead to a domino effect
literally destroying many seemingly unshakeable interna-
tional financial market authorities. But it did happen.
What we see today is the consequences of a big crisis.
When several years ago the police mistreated an unfortunate
Tunisian youth vending rotten vegetables and the crowd
stood up for him, no one could have thought that this would
start the process, which later was dubbed the Arab Spring. Beginning with North Africa, it thundered all over
the Arab world, had echoes in sub-Saharan Africa, and spilled over into the Greater Middle East.
The fact of the matter is that very archaic societies lurked under the guise of "democracy," this "quasi-demo-
cratic" political arrangement in the countries of the Greater Middle East. It is not possible anymore to find the
society of the Middle East that could be seen in the late 1960s and early 1970s, emancipated European-style
on the one side and vivid Middle Eastern-style on the other. The archaization of society is proceeding apace.
We should not forget that there is another, quite disquieting political constant in the Greater Middle East, which
is a global confrontation between Shia Iran and Sunni Turkey. Both countries aspire to leadership in the entire
Muslim world. Iran has a strong case for that claim.
So the "hot summer" of 2014 in the Greater Middle East is just a continuation of the "heat" that began here
five or six years ago.
Among the strategic mistakes committed by the Americans in Iraq, the biggest was perhaps to stake on the
Shia, thus driving themselves into a corner. They are forced to begin to interact with Iran on terms beneficial
to Iran, and to come out against the Sunnis in Iraq. By coming out against the Sunnis in Iraq, you are coming
out against Sunnis throughout the Muslim world. In this connection, even the words and actions supporting
the opposition in Syria, mostly Sunni Muslims - all the same, are not perceived by these oppositionists as a sin-
cere expression of American support.
The incoming European Commission president is a big pragmatist whose attitude towards Russia is one of
calm and balance and that's a great plus. After all, we don't need to be loved; we just want to be taken for what
we are with no attempts to remake us with the help of a sledgehammer. Whether others like us or not is another
story. However, we are here, we will not go away anywhere from Europe and there is no geopolitical eraser to
erase us.
I think that those who raised hell against Qaddafi never could have imagined, even in their worst nightmare,
that all the arsenals that he had built up over more than 40 years of his rule would at one point just scatter
about Africa, the Greater Middle East, and Asia.
You see, if such a complex weapon system as MANPADS was already then available at virtually no cost, then
what is there to talk about? Who benefits from this? Nobody. Because this very same - not important whether
Russian, Chinese or American - Stinger can surface anywhere, in any world capital, next to any international
airport. I do not think that this global fire has been torched with a single match. In fact, a huge number of
matches have torched it, and each of these matches was in an irresponsible hand...
The Hot Summer of 2014