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Электронное приложение к журналу «
Международная жизнь
»
Author : A. Lukin
Director, Center for East Asian and Shanghai Cooperation Organization Studies, Moscow State Institute
(University) of International Relations, Ministry of International Affairs of the Russian Federation;
Doctor of Science (History);
RUSSIA REMAINS A LARGE COUNTRY to be reckoned
with, even though the Soviet Union's disintegration diminished
its international weight. With the larger part of the Soviet Union's
western regions becoming independent states, Russia's eastern
regions and the eastern vector of its foreign policies acquired
much more importance.
Today, Russia should pay particular attention to Central Asia and
the southern sector from which strategic threats emanate. The
Russian Federation has no serious enemies among the largest
states wishing to destroy it or, at least, undermine its might.
This should not be taken to mean that there are no serious threats to Russia's security or
even its continued existence; today, these threats come not from states but from transna-
tional movements, ideologies and organizations which preach them. The most dangerous
of them are born in the south, in the AfPak knot: terrorism fed by radical Islamism, huge
flows of drugs which (according to sources) have already turned about 5 million Russians
into drug addicts. In some regions of Russia the ideology of radical Islamism stimulates
the majority (but not all) terrorist groups and inspires extremist and separatist movements.
Today, Russia should pay particular attention to Central Asia and the southern sector from
which strategic threats emanate.
DRUGS, RADICAL ISLAMISM and terrorism arrive to Russia from Afghanistan via Cen-
tral Asia. Destabilization in this part of the world will bring these threats even closer to
Russia's borders and will aggravate the situation.
Russia's desire to ensure its national interests in Central Asia contradicts neither the inter-
ests of the regional states nor the interests of other big players. In fact, the interests of
these powers and groups - Russia, China, India, the United States, and the EU - in the re-
gion are very similar. Those who talk about "chessboards" and "great games" based on in-
evitable and uncompromising rivalry among the external players are either indulging in
wishful thinking, or know next to nothing about the real state of affairs or are seeking
cheap popularity.
In any case, Russia and the other extra-regional players need stability in the region; the
events in the Arab world have demonstrated that despite strong support from outside the
Central Asia and Afghanistan in Russia's Strategy