Стр. 20 - V

Электронное приложение к журналу «Международная жизнь»
Author : I. Gladkov
Chief Research Associate, Institute of Europe, Russian Academy of Sciences, Professor, Doctor of
Science (Economics)
INTERNATIONAL TRADE has been marked by
dramatic dynamics in the years after the global finan-
cial crisis of 2008-2009. The 23% plunge in global ex-
ports - in monetary terms - was followed by a nearly
"mirror-like" increase in 2010 and 2011, by 22% and
20% respectively. However, in 2012, international
trade stagnated, showing effectively zero growth, and
2013 saw a mere 2% increase (see Table 1).
One remarkable point are last year's negative dynamics
of exports from BRICS countries.The explanation is
that, for various reasons. Brazil, Russia, India, and South Africa lost some of their positions in
global trade in 2014.
Ukraine is obviously a separate case. Its exports also went down seriously that year, sinking the
country to the 50th position in global exporter rankings.
EXPERTS who see a specific economic dimension to the sanctions surely have a point. More-
over, the well-known conductor of the sanctions orchestra is trying to achieve several serious,
major goals with a single movement of his baton.
STATISTICS from the Russian Federal Customs Service show that 2014 was by no means the
best year in the history of Russia's foreign trade. One may look at that year at different angles.
For instance, the end of its first quarter saw the "Crimean spring" and then the anti-Russian
sanctions because of the crisis in southeastern Ukraine.
By now, it has become obvious that the sanctions are here to stay and may be made more rigor-
ous.
The EU as a collective partner of Russia posted losses of a mere 1.4 percentage points for 2014,
but the situation varied significantly from country to country in the Union.
Russian exports to and imports from countries of the CIS, Russia's third collective partner,
dropped by an average of 15% in 2014, sustaining a trend for decrease.
TRENDS that originated in spring 2014 continued into 2015. Russia's foreign trade kept declin-
ing in volume in January and February, going down by 28.7% year on year, with exports dropping
by 23.8% and imports plunging by 37.6%. As before, there was a surplus, this time $31.9 bil-
lion.11
The first two months of the year saw escalating negative trends in thegeography of Russia's for-
eign trade.
The CIS still ranked third among Russia's partners, but the country's trade with CIS nations
dropped both in absolute terms - by $5.8 billion - and in relative terms. The CIS-related propor-
tion of Russia's foreign trade volume edged down to 11.6% from 13.2%.
The Russian Federation's Foreign Trade amid anti-Russian Sanc-
tions: Preliminary Conclusions