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Author : D. Danilov
Head, European Security Department, Institute of Europe, Russian Academy of Sciences, Candidate
of Science (Economics)
THE UKRAINIAN CRISIS has forced NATO not
only to readjust its plans but also its aims. Time is short:
corresponding documents should be ready by the Wales
Summit scheduled for September 4-5, 2014 which "will
shape the future of our Alliance." In fact, it has become
abundantly clear that the Ukrainian crisis, its political
dimensions and its impact on NATO will determine the
Alliance's future.
The Ukrainian crisis dotted the "i's": the Cold War has
not ended and Russia is blaming the West for it.
The Wales Summit will adopt a new program of
stronger collective defense in Europe which will rely on more active military training to invigorate the
logic and consolidate the structure of mutual deterrence. NATO has recaptured its old mission - joint
opposition to the geopolitical enemy which it tried, after Georgia and before Ukraine, to keep in check
by its declaration of "a real strategic partnership" based on mutual respect for the interests of the sides.
Very much as before, Russia will proceed from an understanding that this is all about "the relationships
between the largest military power and the largest military-political bloc."
The war in Libya has demonstrated that Europe cannot cope with similar conflicts on its own and can-
not become Washington's equal partner.
It remains to be seen whether the European pylon of NATO will be strengthened in any way and
whether the Europeans are prepared to harmonize with the United States their responses to the new
challenges. This can and will be done in the political sphere even if the task will prove to be ambiguous
outside NATO: Europe might find it hard to harmonize its responses to Russia with Washington. In
fact, some of the European countries will probably be less willing to go ahead with NATO's tough
policy.
Everything that NATO is doing is under the slogan "Ukraine should be defended!", meant as an "answer
to Moscow." This does nothing to de-escalate the conflict to which the West is calling but perfectly fits
the logic of a new confrontation fraught with graver military threat and a gradual slide to confrontation
along the new dividing lines. When Russia is practically regarded as an aggressor, more active NATO
military training activities with Ukraine's participation and probably on its territory will build up tension
in the region and aggravate the relationships between Russia and NATO.
In the context of confrontational logic, NATO's military presence in Ukraine is no longer unrealistic.
Today, NATO looks at its assistance to Ukraine as a part of the West's shared responsibility for Ukraine's
Euroatlantic choice.
NATO and Russia are drifting toward mutual deterrence which creates serious challenges for their part-
ners outside Europe. It has become abundantly clear that many of them are not ready to accept either
the Western position or Russia's responses.
NATO: Forward Into the Past