Стр. 9 - V

http://interaffairs.ru
Author : B. Zaritsky
Professor, Department of World Economy and World Finance, Financial University under the Govern-
ment of the Russian Federation, Doctor of Science (History)
IN THE PAST FEW YEARS, almost all indicators of eco-
nomic cooperation between Germany and the post-Soviet coun-
tries, including Russia, have worsened sharply against the
background of Germany's dynamically growing trade with the
rest of the world.
RUSSIAN-GERMAN RELATIONS have seen better days.
The political atmosphere has been poisoned. The imitation of
a "strategic partnership" has withered and died. Bilateral trade
has been falling for the fourth consecutive year.
Much of this can be attributed to the "war of sanctions." For
example, Germany was the biggest supplier of machinery and
equipment to the Russian market for many years.
But sanctions are only one side of the coin. An equally signifi-
cant role in the reduction of bilateral trade belongs to the economic downturn in Russia, ex-
change rate volatility, the deteriorating financial position of Russian companies, and the resulting
decline in demand for imported goods both in the corporate sector and among consumers.
In the second half of 2016, business attitudes changed significantly. It appears that German en-
trepreneurs are gradually adapting to the changed conditions for doing business in Russia and
are once again ready to invest in the Russian economy. According to a survey of German com-
panies operating in Russia conducted by the Russian-German AHK in the fall of 2016, 22% of
CEOs plan to localize production in Russia in the next 12 months, and 72% intend to make ad-
ditional investments in plants already in operation.
While the problems in Russian-German relations have intensified, Gazprom has been issuing
upbeat reports about an increase in the physical volume of natural gas exports to Europe.
The head of the Committee on Eastern European Economic Relations, Wolfgang Büchele, has
admitted that an orientation towards European integration is of little benefit to the former Soviet
republics if they simultaneously lose their position in the Eurasian market, primarily in Russia.
"None of the three countries with which the EU has concluded an association agreement," he
said, referring to Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova, "has been able to increase its exports to the
European market."
Berlin's long-term "eastern" strategy is not dictated by momentary considerations. A united and
stronger Germany is now seeking to become an independent player in the post-Soviet space. As
Germany has turned into the EU's dominant force, these aspirations have become increasingly
ambitious. To put it bluntly, their purpose is to expand Germany's political, economic and ide-
ological sphere of influence to the republics of the former USSR, to weaken Russia's geopolitical
Germany in the Post-Soviet Space