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Author : E. Ananieva
Head, Center for British Studies, Institute of Europe, Russian Academy of Sciences, Candidate of
Science (Philosophy)
The results of the general elections in Britain caused a huge sensation: the
Tories got 311 seats, Labour, 232, the Scottish National Party (SNP), 56;
Lib-Dems, 8; the UK Independence Party (UKIP) and the Greens, one seat
each.
It should be said in all justice that not all forecasts were off the target. Those
who had said that the SNP would elbow Labour out of Scotland (the Tories
had been already pushed out) proved right. In the same way, those of the
analysts who had predicted that the Lib-Dems would lose the positions
earned at the previous general elections were right yet the gap - three times
fewer seats - was much wider than predicted. The analysts rightly pointed
out that the votes would be tied to constituencies and that the share of un-
decided was too high. Finally, those who had spoken about a one-party Con-
servative Cabinet as being "less undesirable" than other possibilities - a one-party Labour Cabinet or a
coalition with any of the other parties - showed more perspicacity than their colleagues.
The higher rating of the smaller parties has been ensured by the public which, very much dissatisfied
with the Conservatives and Labour, shifted its sympathies elsewhere. Several months before the May
2015 elections, public opinion polls testified that an overall majority was outside the reach of the leading
parties and, hence, a one-party Cabinet.
It remains to be seen whether UKIP proves able to preserve the image of an anti-system party, "the
party which is a clean break from the discredited old parties." Today, it is shattered by sexual and racist
scandals; the prospects of deputy mandates started squabbles around the candidates at the coming elec-
tions.
The country is moving toward a multiparty system because the leading parties have failed to offer the
nation a Big Idea. Neither progressive conservatism nor Big Society, the ideas formulated by David
Cameron, became the Conservatives' ideological basis. The Labour Party tried and failed to lure the
voters by "responsible capitalism," predistribution, Blue Labour and One Nation Labour. The same
can be said about the Orange Book, a manifesto of the Liberal-Democrats. The parties have no choice
but to talk about how fast state expenditures and, correspondingly, social spending will be reduced and
discuss the candidates and party leaders. The result will depend on the prevailing moods shaped by po-
litical developments. The Tories and Labour are moving in the opposite directions: the former move
further to the right, Labour, to the left yet neither has a Big Idea.
It remains to be seen whether the UK will get a one-party majority government, a one-party minority
government, a coalition government, or a coalition minority government.
So far, for political reasons (the opposition between the Tory and Labour looks uncompromising) a
grand coalition of the two leading parties (according to the German pattern) looks impossible though
the rebellious idea has been voiced36 in order to keep UKIP outside the Cabinet, even on a marginal
role.
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The 2015 General Elections in the UK