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Author : V. Surguladze
R.O.S.T.U. leading methodologist, M.A. Economics, Candidate of Science (Philosophy)
NORMALLY, the military, political, economic and social factors are
fairly obvious and, therefore, are treated as the key objects of situa-
tional analysis and political science assessments in foreign policy
planning and forcasting. On the other hand, values, ideologies, po-
litical will, and motivations require special attention as the factors
the vagueness of which is created by considerable cultural distinc-
tions, specifics of outlooks and self-awareness of different people
living in different states.
Mass psychology and political psychology are moving to the fore as
the most required and promising trends of studies outside which it
is impossible to grasp the regularities of the social-political processes
needed for modeling and forecasting.
In the process of foreign policy decision-making and interpretation of foreign policy decisions,
the subjective side of political processes should be taken into account, including values present
in the political culture of each and every society, sentiments and expectations of the electorate
and the ruling circles.
ANY ATTEMPT to forecast foreign policy decisions of the political leaders of any state should
take into account the entire range of the factors discussed above and responsible for the assess-
ment and actions of the foreign policy actors: their assessments, motives and actions are, to a
great extent, determined by psychological, that is, purely subjective reasons.
The psychological motives of any actions of the political counteragents should be studied, in
order to carry out a cross-cultural analysis of the causes behind the actions of world actors.
Objective and careful studies of the subjective factors of formulations of goals by foreign policy
actors will allow us to build up a relatively sustainable world order, acceptable for the majority
of states. It should rest on common sense, balanced approach to the choice of the roads of de-
velopment in the specific conditions of the mutually acceptable future rather than on the ro-
mantic ideas of building an "Islamic," "Christian," "Communist," "democratic" or any other
"ideal" and "absolute" and the "only correct" world.
Электронное приложение к журналу «Международная жизнь»
The Psychological Factor in Foreign Policy as an Element of Strate-
gic Forecasting