Упрощенная HTML-версия
Author : M. Khaduev
Attache, Embassy of the Russian Federation in the Republic of Armenia, postgraduate student, Diplo-
matic Academy, Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation
THERE IS EVERY REASON to describe the Syrian
conflict as an open confrontation between the King-
dom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) and the Islamic Republic
of Iran (IRI) in the Middle East. Saudi Arabia which
relies on the Sunni doctrine of Islam as the corner-
stone of its statehood is acutely aware of Iranian
pressure too close to its borders. This leaves the KSA
no other alternative but to wipe the Ba'ath regime in
Syria.
The roots of the present Syrian crisis go back to the
1970 military coup which brought Hafez al-Assad, father of President Bashar al-Assad, to power.
The Shia Alawi president and his Arab Socialist Ba'ath Party steered the country toward socialism
Arab style under the leadership of the country's top military (mainly Alawi) crust.
Russia insists on non-interference of external forces in the Syrian conflict and on a political res-
olution. Very much to the displeasure of the West and its Gulf allies, Moscow goes on fulfilling
previous agreements on weapon supplies.
At the early stages of the Syrian conflict, Tehran warned its neighbors that foreign interference
in Syria would force it to move in on the side of its ally. Hezbollah, which appeared after the Is-
lamic revolution in Iran and was banned in the West as a terrorist organization, is already fighting
in Syria together with the government forces. To a great extent, it was support of Shia Iran that
transformed "a rebellion by the Syrian people to a rebellion of Sunnis."
The West led by the United States is unanimous in its conviction that Bashar Assad should leave
the political Middle Eastern scene. They talk about human rights violations and massive civilian
casualties caused by continued fighting. We should bear in mind, however, that the West wants
to weaken Iran and its paramilitary formations of the Hezbollah type which figure prominently
on the political scene of Lebanon and Syria.
The American-Russian disagreements outside the Syrian file suggest that Washington will side
with its allies in the Middle East to address two immediate geopolitical tasks with a long-term
perspective in view:
1) Weakening Iran by setting up a Sunni (democratic or Salafi) state on Syrian territory to destroy
the "Shia belt" which ties Iran and Lebanon together;
2) Weakening Russia and China. With the Assad regime safely out of the way the Salafi will spare
no effort to pursue anti-Russian propaganda, a direct threat to Russia's security in the south.
China will not be forgotten either.
The balance of power in the Middle East depends on who will win in Syria. Saudi Arabia and
Iran, each claiming the status of the core state, reveal to the world the disruptive contradictions
in the Islamic world.
http://interaffairs.ru
Saudi Arabia and Iran: Political Confrontation in Syria